Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Solar Sells

That's not just a play on words. It's the truth. For those of you who do not watch CNBC, Google/Yahoo Finance, or your private online stock-broker, now is the time to start. A quick search will yield a myriad of investment mumbo-jumbo, so let me break it down:

- Last year solar stocks had a blockbuster year. Most major clean-energy funds that contain solar stocks in their portfolios gained nearly 50%. That's huge (especially to poor college students like you and I). Some individual stocks like First Solar, which makes a certain type of thin film cell, rose something like 200-300%.

- Worldwide silicon supply is experiencing a shortage. What does this mean? Well, it means that solar companies will have a tougher time making new products, which will affect their growth and earnings. First Solar (mentioned above) may not be able to sustain 300% growth. HOWEVER, what is also true, is that the companies that MAKE and SELL silicon to solar cell companies, can basically demand whatever price they want. Since there are only a handful of companies who actually do this right now, and even less who are publicly traded, I'm willing to place a well-educated bet that the CEOs of these companies will probably be getting a new Ferrari (or two) by the end of the year. :) And we may finally be able to pay off our college debt.

- The House just approved $17 billion in new renewable energy funding a month ago. Thanks to good ol' George Bush, this funding may never be spent (except for say, a "cleaner fuel source" for tomahawk cruise missiles), but it shows that Congress is ready to put some serious cash into the "clean-tech" industry. Match that with the billions that are already being poured into new companies in Silicon Valley on the scale of the dot-com era Venture Capital, and it's a pretty good indication there are quite a few people who have faith in these companies. As soon as we get a new president in office (Republican or Democrat) the floodgates will open.

- At the time of this writing, oil is $110 a barrel which translates to a national average of $3.22 per gallon of gas and will probably be pushed up to $4 soon enough. I won't even mention the gazzilion numbers of products that are made with oil or energy from it which will undoubtedly raise prices all-around. While that means investing in Exxon is pretty much guaranteed money, it also means for the investor with a *hint* of a conscience that renewable energy companies are getting plenty of attention (and funding).

Now, I don't want to sound like the messiah here and help you gamble all your money away. Like any good investor, I should put a disclaimer on my statements: with all that being said, solar stocks are still risky. Many are trading at nearly 18 times their earnings (eerily similar to the dot-com bubble syndrome), and some don't even have a legitimate product out yet. You practically need an iron stomach to handle the roller-coaster ride. But for those of you who do good research, you will see that the fundamentals are there. People want solar. There is much money to be had.

1 comment:

TravO said...

A list of references would be nice, um kay.